WELCOME BACK: After a long weekend of relaxation, Thistle HQ decided we would like to start a fight on the internet. Despite it being an election week, the fastest way to get people shouting online is to name a Lions squad. So, here we go - we take a look at the Scots in contention and who we think will go vs who should go.
BUY US A COFFEE! If you like what you're hearing and reading from the Thistle, you can now use the button below to 'buy us a coffee' (or maybe a few warm cans of Tennents) and show your support for the Pod! Thanks!
THE CONTENDERS: In this blog we will cover off the probables, the possibles, and the long shots/bolter picks. We are trying to be realistic here - as much as we would love to see a Scotland starting XV taken, we have chosen our list based on those who can genuinely be considered contenders. If Daryl Marfo or Jack Cuthbert are chosen out of the wilderness, noone will be happier than us. But for the time being, here are your runners and riders:
Stuart Hogg
Finn Russell
Ali Price
Duhan Van Der Merwe
Chris Harris
Hamish Watson
Jonny Gray
Jamie Ritchie
Rory Sutherland
Zander Fagerson
George Turner
Fraser Brown
Cameron Redpath
Sean Maitland
ROBMAC: we are delighted to continue our partnership with sponsor RobMac, which so far has witnessed the Scotland national side make history on two separate occasions. Hopefully their luck extends to tomorrow’s Lions announcement.
RobMac are an independent financial advisor specialising in mortgage management, financial planning and investments. We know the team at RobMac well and they are just as keen on Scottish rugby as we are so it makes a great fit.
You can check them out at robmac.co.uk
The ‘Probables’
Stuart Hogg is perhaps the only definite Scottish selection, despite what ‘experts’ like Stephen Jones and Stuart Barnes of the Times have to say on the matter. He has Lions pedigree, has been in terrific form for Scotland during the 6 Nations, and has added maturity and leadership to his on-field excellence. You would like to think the test fullback spot is his to lose, although Liam Williams may be seen by Gatland as the more solid option in terms of his work in the air and solidity in defense.
You would have thought that by now even the most ardent anti-Scot would have Hamish Watson on the plane, with his superlative performances for club and country topped off by winning the Six Nations player of the championship gong. However, the back row is a packed field, and there is a school of thought that Watson’s perceived lack of versatility (in truth he is limited to the 7 shirt) may count against him when one considers rivals such as Curry, Beirne, and Navidi can play across the back row. The argument that Watson is too small to mix it with the South African forwards is entirely misplaced: anyone who has watched his recent performances in a Scotland shirt can see that his power game is a match for anyone. Let’s put him in the probables camp - and if (surely) selected, bank on him eventually pushing for the test 7 jersey.
Then we have Finn Russell, whose ability should get him on the plane but whose place still seems uncertain. A reasonable but at times inconsistent Six Nations, marred by ill-discipline, was a slight disappointment given his form in the preceding months, particularly in a Racing shirt. And while him and Townsend appear to have mended bridges, Gatland may see Russell as too great a risk to carry in South Africa. However, as Scottish fans it is sometimes easy to forget Russell’s undoubted ability as a game breaker and the fact he offers an entirely different playing style to the alternatives at 10. Continued doubts over the durability of Jonny Sexton may be enough to secure his seat on the plane, but it is squeaky bum time for now.
The ‘Possibles’
Rory Sutherland has been long talked of as a potential tourist, and when fit has proved a match for any home nations loosehead. However, ongoing shoulder injuries mean he is in a race against time to prove his fitness which may prove his undoing.
Selection at scrum-half is increasingly becoming one of the most interesting talking points ,mainly due to the fact no single candidate has really stood out from the chasing pack. As a result, Ali Price should be firmly in the discussion. Whilst criticised for some poor decisions at key points of the Six Nations, overall Price had a very good tournament, and has displayed generally good international form over the past 2 years. His role in recent away victories over England and France is arguably proof that he can mix it at the highest level. But wait, what’s that over the distance - a last ditch campaign for England discard Danny Care? Eeshhttt the English are desperate.
We were tempted to put Chris Harris into the ‘Probables’ at one point, which twelve months ago would probably have had us publicly flogged. But the centre’s odds have shortened hugely in recent months, following a stand out Six Nations campaign. Harris arguably has all the hallmarks of a great Lions tourist: work rate and organization in defence, the ability to run hard and straight lines, and underrated handling abilities. In short, a Gatland-style player. In addition, while Ringrose and Jonathan Davies are likely to tour, Harris offers far more versatility through his ability to cover both centres and the back three. The Harris hype train is pulling into the station…
Duhan Van Der Merwe has been similarly catapulted into the conversation, after a barnstorming start to his international career with Scotland. While there remain doubts over his defensive abilities, arguably there is no other player in the British Isles with his ability to bust tackles and make metres in attack. Once again, the back three is a packed field, but one could argue that the other contenders - Watson, Adams, Earls, May - are all fairly similar players. Duhan doubtless has a point of difference, and he would arguably have a decent stab at the test side if selected. At the very least, Duhan would do well to schedule a trip back home to South Africa this summer…
The ‘Long Shots’/‘Bolters’
Zander Fagerson could well have been included in the possibles, although he faces stiff competition at no 3 (Furlong and Sinckler mainly) and his red card versus Wales could count against him (even though it shouldn’t).
Jonny Gray would no doubt thrive in a Lions setup, but once again may fall victim to a packed field, and the perception that he is too much of the strong, silent type.
Jamie Ritchie has also shown his ability to rise to new challenges, and provides a versatility as an emergency lock, but this tour may come too soon for him.
Any one of Scotland’s hooker options - McInally, Brown or Turner - could arguably do a job, yet their selection seems unlikely. If the tour was picked 12 months ago its likely one of McInally or Brown would be on the plane, but injuries have come at an unfortunate time. Although it always worth remembering that less than two years ago Toonie picked McInally to be his World Cup captain - with George, LCD and Kelleher failing to fire on the international stage this year could a positive word from Townsend see Rambo on the plane? Last but not least, for narrative, Gatland would do worse than Dave Cherry…
We would all absolutely love to see Cam Redpath selected, and he could prove the ultimate bolter with his distribution skills from 12, while Sean Maitland is consistency personified and can draw on Lions pedigree.
DREAMS V REALITY: from a playing perspective, Scotland have arguably not been better placed going into a Lions tour since way back when in 1997, when we were afforded 5 squad picks, 4 of whom went on to play a part in the test series. Selection chances have been improved by the addition of Townsend and Tandy as coaches for the tour, which surely should help decide at least one marginal call.
However, while Scotland fans are perhaps expecting 5-6 to tour, the reality is we could be left with far less. This reflects both the quality of the player pool, and a nagging suspicion that in the very tight calls, Gatland is likely to prefer the Welsh, Irish or English player. On the one hand, this is understandable: it is only in the last c.2 years that Scotland have proven their ability to win away from home and shaken off their tag as pretty but brittle at the highest level. But recent form and momentum surely needs to come into it at some point - past tours have come badly undone when the coaches have picked on past glories alone.
So prior to Thursday’s announcement, here are our best guesses at which Scots are set to tour:
Matt: 5 - Hogg, Watson, Russell, Duhan, Harris
Alan: 6 - Hogg, Watson, Russell, Price, Duhan, Zander
Dave: 6 - Hogg, Watson, Russell, Duhan, Harris, Zander
And if we do only get 3 picks, at least we have the 1872 Cup for comfort…
PLUGGING: You can subscribe to the podcast here: https://play.acast.com/s/thethistle
Make sure to check out this week’s extra special episode with Jonnie Beattie:
Follow us on Instagram here: https://www.instagram.com/thistle_rugby_pod/?hl=en
Follow us on twitter here: https://twitter.com/thistlerugbypod