Scottish rugby death spiral?
WELCOME: No one said supporting Scotland is an enjoyable experience. Thanks for joining us for a weekly doomscroll through the latest news in Scottish rugby. 2020 continues to deliver for all the wrong reasons - buckle up.
GROUP OF DEATH: despite his contract extension, Toonie was most likely slowly placing the champagne back on ice as the draw for the 2023 World Cup in France was announced. Scotland face the daunting challenge of current holders South Africa and an Ireland side who we have a won 4, lost 11 record against over the last decade. They will also be joined by an as yet unconfirmed islander side, just to make things that little bit more challenging.
Were Scotland to pull off the Group of Death great escape, they would be treated to a quarter final against the winner or runner-up from Pool B, so either (checks notes, double checks notes, tears notes into pieces) France or New Zealand.
It doesn’t seem that long ago that the SRU came up with the big fat hairy goal of winning the 2015 World Cup. Me thinks that slogan has been consigned to history. Maybe we can start another fight with World Rugby this time - would keep things interesting at least.
The ever reliable Graham Love summed up Scottish rugby fans post draw:
LEAVING GLAS VEGAS: Adam Hastings has turned down a new contract with Glasgow and is off to Gloucester next season. It’s hard to blame Hastings who has come a long way out of Finn’s shadow at Scotstoun to emerge as an international 10 in his own right. Where does it leave Glasgow, though? In short, in desperate need of a new ten. Peter Horne and Brandon Thomson have done an admirable (but not good) job filling in during this extended international break, but they need a name to build a team around.
Anyway, more good news follows…
EUROPEAN WOES: the pro sides kicked off their Champion Cup campaigns in disappointing style, with Edinburgh folding at home to La Rochelle and Glasgow on the end of an absolute shellacking at the hands of the Exeter Chiefs.
While La Rochelle are increasingly one of the giants of French rugby, Thistle HQ was reasonably optimistic going into Saturday night’s fixture. Edinburgh were able to name close to their strongest side, buoyed by the return of their Scottish internationals, founded on a pack that should be able to compete with most. In truth, Richard Cockerill’s men delivered a subdued performance and lost out on the key moments that decided the match (key takeaway: Henry Pyrgos should never be allowed anywhere near a high ball again).
The truncated form of the tournament this year means Edinburgh are now massively up against it to qualify for the knockout rounds, yet Cockerill has indicated he is likely to pick a full strength squad to face Sale next week. Increasingly this season is looking slightly wasted for a side that was challenging on both domestic and European fronts last year.
At least the Glasgow match went more to script, but it was one that made difficult reading for fans. On reflection, the 42-0 defeat was fairly unsurprising - the reigning English and European champions against Pro 14 strugglers coming off the back of a home defeat to the Dragons. Exeter were consistently dominant, yet Glasgow didn’t help themselves through shocking discipline (10 penalties conceded in the first half) and a seeming inability to execute even the most basic of skills. Stuart Hogg and Jonny Gray’s muted try celebrations suggested the Chiefs almost felt sorry for their former teammates.
Glasgow seem to have been on a perpetual decline over the past 18 months, from Pro 14 finalists and competing at the top end of the Champions Cup to desperate basement dwellers. An ageing squad has been deprived of investment, and key departures - Russell, Hogg and Gray - have not looked close to being replaced. The big ticket signings of Richie Gray and Leone Nakarawa have made little impact so far. Senior players - Wilson, Horne, Seymour - look entirely off the pace and are currently being outshone by the Warriors academy graduates. There are also a raft of key players (including Sam Johnson and Huw Jones) who are coming off contract at the end of this season.
On reflection, the appointment of Danny Wilson, demoted from Scotland assistant duty to replace the well regarded (and successful) Dave Rennie, seems to have been a misstep. Does he command the same respect from the players? Do signing targets really want to play for a team that seemingly lacks ambition? Something appears to have gone badly wrong at Scotstoun, with little near-term sign of things changing for the better.
AT LEAST WE HAVE FINN: leave it to Finn Russell (who returned from injury way ahead of schedule - some might say suspiciously so) to provide some much needed joy after a dispiriting weekend for Scottish rugby…
PRO EXODUS? PR-EXODUS?: To add salt into the gaping wounds of Scottish rugby, there have been worrying rumours about the departure of a clutch of high profile players from the pro sides.
Firstly, The Rugby Paper is reporting that Duhan Van Der Merwe has signed a £300k per season deal to sign for the Worcester Warriors. Rumours are also rife that Jaco Van Der Walt is being courted by English clubs and of course, Hastings is off to Kingsholm.
Whilst it is difficult to begrudge any player the chance of significantly increasing his pay packet, there would be something slightly galling about Duhan and Jaco leaving Scotland almost as soon as they have gained their residency qualification. In the case of Duhan, Worcester seems like a step down in exposure to the highest level, despite Edinburgh’s recent poor form.
Hot on the heels of Hogg, Russell, Gray and (perhaps) Hamish Watson venturing abroad, this is perhaps the reality of Scottish rugby at present. High profile players want (or need) to move for either more money or the chance to actually win silverware. Their departure should (in theory) open up spaces in the pro sides for talented youngsters to fill.
Former Scotland prop Peter Wright summed up the situation well in his BBC column.
MORE JOCK-BOKS: meanwhile, Murrayfield’s South Africa scouting mission shows no signs of stopping, with Western Province head coach John Dobson letting slip that 23-year old Scots-qualified lock David Meihuizen is on the SRU’s radar. While relatively inexperienced at the top level (with just 8 Super Rugby caps to his name), at 2.08m and 123kg Meihuizen is the sort of physical specimen that is rare on these shores. Ideally the next cab off the rank would come through the national age grade system and/or Super 6, but the reality is Scotland needs to make the most of its resources. Read more details on the story here.
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TOO-NIE MORE YEARS: as expected, Gregor Townsend will lead Scotland into the 2023 World Cup after agreeing a two-year extension to his current contract.
Townsend’s boasts a decent record since taking over from Vern Cotter in 2017, with 22 victories in 40 tests - a 50% winning ratio so far. Highlights include home and away victories over Australia, taking New Zealand to the wire in 2017, the Calcutta Cup victory in 2018, and most recently, breaking Scotland’s 20-year duck with victory away in Wales.
However, it has been far from plain sailing. The 2019 World Cup campaign was a disaster, there was the very public spat with Finn Russell back in February, while the disappointing conclusion to the Autumn Nations Cup sits painfully fresh in the memory. In addition, the Toonie Tombola continues to frustrate fans desperate for selection consistency.
Ultimately, Townsend is the most successful Scotland coach professional era, and delivering 3 wins during the last Six Nations was an impressive achievement that likely cemented in the minds of Dodson that Toonie was the man for the next World Cup. Potential alternatives such as Scott Robertson and Richard Cockerill have been banded around more in hope than anything else, and given where we are in the World Cup cycle, any incoming coach would only have two years to prepare the team. We’re on the march with Toonie’s army - best get used to it.
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Is it all bad if Scottish and Scot-curious players like Duhan are getting looks from the Premiership? Some definite American ignorance over here, but if the Premiership or the Top 14 are "better" leagues than the Pro 14 and they want Scottish players, that would speak to the strength of the Scottish national team, right?
I kinda view it as here, for soccer, we always get excited whenever one of our national team players breaks into a European league rather than playing in the MLS.
Anyway, if the aim is to making Edinburgh, Glasgow and future 3rd (4th if you count Old Glory??) Scottish pro team Dun Johannes into destination teams, what's lacking? Money?